The 2015 Formula 1 season wraps up this weekend in Abu Dhabi, but Lewis Hamilton already claimed the driver’s championship, his third, a month ago. What’s worse, Rosberg and Vettel also secured second and third place, respectively.
But fourth! Well…
Fourth in the championship is undeclared and could prove both exciting and important. Call it the battle of the Finns. Valtteri Bottas currently holds the mark by a single point. Kimi Raikkonen, his countryman and oldest driver on the grid and 2007 Formula 1 World Champion, has 135 points and, based on Friday free practice times at least, the quicker car. The elder of the two also has a second place finish in Bahrain. The best Bottas managed this year is third, which means a tie in points falls Raikkonen’s way. It couldn’t be closer.
The graph below shows every possible outcome.
They could finish 111 different ways. Green goes to Bottas, which happens in 56 cases, blue means Raikkonen triumphs, 55 chances of that. The numbers in the boxes equal the margin of victory (Raikkonens are negative because of the math I used).
Actually three drivers could claim the most coveted available spot. Felipe Massa, currently sixth, is 18 points behind Raikkonen. But for Massa to take it, he’d have to win the race and have the good fortune of both Bottas and Raikkonen finishing seventh or worse. Not impossible, though the rule of probability effectively throws him out, so we’re back to Finland.
Okay, my money won’t bet on either one winning the race, but just about any other result is plausible. One of them on the podium even creeps towards likely. All things considered, Raikkonen stands with momentum, the faster car, and more resourceful team on his side. I think he’ll take it. But, if Bottas holds position and finishes the season in fourth, he may very well join Vettel in Ferrari red in 2017.
13 April 2015
Who is Antonio Felix Da Costa?
Born in Lisbon, Portugal on the 31st of August, 1991, Antonio is a DTM driver, a Formula E winner, and a Red Bull test driver. Starting in karts, Da Costa moved to cars in 2008, racing in Formula Renault. He first got in a Formula 1 car in 2010 driving for Force India during the young driver’s test at Yas Marina. In 2012, Da Costa joined the Red Bull Junior team, though that has yet to turn into a Toro Rosso race seat, and, at the ancient for Red Bull age of 23, it’s unlikely to ever do so.
Da Costa also raced a DTM BMW M4 for Team MTEK in 2014. He took 10 starts with a best finish of 21st. That may not sound terribly impressive, but his performance was good enough to be retained for a 2015 DTM campaign, now racing for BMW team Schnitzer.
Da Costa also competes in Formula E, with the Amlin Aguri team. His most recent win came in the engineless formula car, at the Buenos Aires ePrix , 10th of January of this year. He beat two sons of racing legends in the process, Alain Prost’s son Nicolas finished 2nd; and Nelson Piquet Jr. 3rd.
Da Costa must have dreams of one-day driving in Formula 1, I mean, I did, and so has most any other racing driving in the world. But unlike most of us, his chances are reasonable. Da Costa’s best bet will come from leveraging Portuguese sponsorship, as he is the sole driver from the costal nation. Regardless, I respect that Da Costa keeps himself busy in other formula. And who knows, Formula e might be the next big thing…might be.
I know that lap times and running order of the first pre-season test held in Jerez, Spain tells me between little and nothing about team performance in 2015. But I also know that speculating is fun, and fun is good! Seriously, though, I can’t help but glean opinions from the first test of the year. So here goes:
I first noticed two teams absent from the test. I say two because the Marussia F1 Team refuses to quit and is vying to run a modified 2014 car in 2015, this despite missing the last races of 2014 and entering receivership late in the year. If they somehow make the Australian grid in March, will it mark the beginning of a second chance; a shot in the arm where Marussia not only survives, but thrives? Or will it be a last gasp effort that simply delays the inevitable fall of the young team? I’m certain Bernie would rather see ten teams than nine in the paddock this year, which helps Marussia’s chances, but I still think it’s unlikely to see MR03 on the grid.
Force India / VJM08
Force India didn’t make it to Jerez either. They claim to simply have run into “production issues.” But it’s a slightly growing concern because Force India originally planned to launch the car Feb 19 and run VJM08 for the first of two Barcelona tests. Now they plan to run VJM07, not rolling out the 2015 car until the Feb 26. I’m sure we’ll see Hülkenberg and Pérez clicking off laps soon enough, but this delay doesn’t help Force India’s march towards the front of the grid.
Sauber / C34
But lap times beckon. I can ignore them no longer, and Ferrari dominated the metric. Every day ended with a Ferrari powered car at the top of the timesheets. On the third day of testing, however, it was Sauber, not the factory boys, that set FTD. Brazilian Felipe Nasr bolted a set of super soft tires on the C34 chassis and stopped the clock at 1 minute 21.545 seconds, a couple tenths quicker than the rest. More critically (but also totally unfair), Nasr was half a second clear of teammate Marcus Ericsson, who took over the next day. None of this means Sauber will chase podiums this year, but hopefully it means they’ll score a few points.
Ferrari / SF15-T
Kimi Räikkönen led the Maranello factory effort and ended the four-day test with the fastest time, beating Sebastian Vettel by a tenth and a half with a 1 minute 20.841 second time. In related news, a cold front swept Finland as all 5.5 million citizens breathed a sigh of relief.
The Iceman likes the car. “Over the winter, we have made a good step forward and this car is definitely an improvement over the 2014 one,” Raikkonen said. Whether Ferrari’s SF15-T is truly the pacesetter is irrelevant. It’s great news that the team set the pace at Jerez as it grew confidence in the car and in both its drivers.
Mercedes / F1W06 Hybrid
Perhaps the most important metric wasn’t lap time, but lap count. And Mercedes built a 2014 esque margin from the others. The folks from Brackley logged 516 laps in four days. Rosberg circled Jerez more than 150 times the first day, and the team systematically and reliably went through a fat checklist. Lap times put them behind Sauber, but I find it near impossible that Mercedes showed their full potential.
Lotus / E23 Hybrid
Speaking of laps, Lotus ran 190 of them and did so in only two and a half days of running. The Mercedes power unit showed real promise for the Enstone, UK team. Pastor Maldonado drove the car first and loved it right from the off, “It was fantastic to get behind the wheel for the first ever lap of this exciting new car,” said Maldonado. “Even though it’s early days, we achieved a lot today. It was already exciting to feel the potential of the car and I can’t wait to get back in the car tomorrow. The car certainly looks fantastic and I know we have a lot of potential for the season ahead.”
The team ran 6th fastest, ahead of Red Bull and McLaren in lap times, but that’s not important. This test result compared to last year is. With luck, we’ll see a regular points-earner in the E23 hybrid chassis.
Williams / FW37
The Last, and certainly not least, Mercedes powered team, Williams, never went fastest, but ran consistently with minimal delays or concerns. Again, I think the most valuable asset gained is confidence. Felipe Massa summed it up best, “The feeling in the car was good even for a first impression and it’s well balanced,” Massa said. “I am also confident in the car setup. The FW37 is another step forward from where we left the FW36, which is promising.” Another step forward in results would be a win.
Red Bull / RB11
Red Bull, by contrast, struggled with the RB11. That’s perhaps fitting giving they run Renault engines even when the former Renault factory team, Lotus, doesn’t. That power unit and team struggled again, running fewer timed laps than Lotus, despite running all four days. Despite the troubles, perma-smile Daniel Riccardo remained optimistic. “Although we were limited with running today, we got some long runs together and that was encouraging,” Ricciardo said. “In terms of where we’re at, it’s impossible to know about the pace because we don’t know what people are running, but I think the consistency today was good, we put a few laps together in the end, so a few positives to take away from today.”
Red Bull seemed stagnant while the other teams progressed. If that’s true, the Milton Keynes team won’t win this year. Its last winless season was 2008. Adrain Newey taking a step away from the team may be the root cause; after all, he joined the team in 2006 and winning started coming as he took more control over design.
Torro Rosso / STR10
Worse still for the energy drink giant, its support team got a better start. Toro Rosso lapped more, and lapped faster. This, despite hiring a minor to pilot one of the STR10s and a rookie in the other. Overall they went 9th and 11th fastest, with merely a few tenths of a second between their times, while the Dans at Red Bull on managed the 12th and 14th best times. Right now Scuderia Toro Rosso leads the effort for Renault and managed Jerez with the least trouble.
McLaren / MP4-30
Honda struggled to reliably power the MP4-30, but I understand. The brand new unit experienced, let’s call it, teething problems, but Honda progressed and got Jenson Button and McLaren redo man Fernando Alonso around the track 79 times by the end of the fourth day. The best McLaren time was nearly seven seconds slower than Ferrari, but compared to Renault last year, the work Honda completed is admirable.
Alonso agreed, “Given the complexity of modern Formula One machinery, the sorts of issues we encountered today weren’t too surprising,” said the Spaniard. “They’re just the things you experience on the first day of a Formula One test. But it’s been a fantastic day for me: to have the privilege to drive the car for the first time – for the comeback of McLaren and Honda after 23 years – makes me feel extremely proud.”
I’m confident that McLaren will lay down more competitive lap times at Barcelona and Honda will add reliability to the power unit quickly. It will take a bit longer to get up to Mercedes’ peak power levels, but Honda will do it faster than Ferrari or Renault, then they’ll surpass them. Honda is that tenacious and capable.
So despite what we saw out of the first test, I’m bullish with McLaren Honda. Alonso and Button make a strong driver pairing, with complemented talents: the Spaniard capable of eking out performance in a compromised car and the Briton sensitive and technical enough to get to the root cause of the problem. McLaren won’t steal away the championship, but they’ll make the podium. Lotus also looks promising, after such a disastrous 2014, I just want them to score more than 8 points and I think Mercedes power will make that easy. And fingers crossed that Ferrari can maintain their testing form. I want to see Raikkonen on the podium again.
More broadly, it’s great to see how far we’ve come with our new engines in just one year. Already all of them more reliably make more power, which dropped lap times, and will add excitement to the races. And, Jim, I hear they now make 1000hp.
This week’s unofficial aggregate test times from Jerez:
- Kimi Raikkonen, Ferrari, 1m 20.841s, 200 laps
- Sebastian Vettel, Ferrari, 1m 20.984s, 149 laps
- Felipe Nasr, Sauber, 1m 21.545s, 197 laps
- Nico Rosberg, Mercedes, 1m 21.982s, 308 laps
- Marcus Ericsson, Sauber, 1m 22.019s, 185 laps
- Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes, 1m 22.172s, 208 laps
- Felipe Massa, Williams, 1m 22.276s, 144 laps
- Valtteri Bottas, Williams, 1m 22.319s, 134 laps
- Max Verstappen, Toro Rosso, 1m 22.553s, 170 laps
- Pastor Maldonado, Lotus, 1m 22.713s, 137 laps
- Carlos Sainz Jr, Toro Rosso, 1m 23.187s, 183 laps
- Daniel Ricciardo, Red Bull, 1m 23.338s, 84 laps
- Romain Grosjean, Lotus, 1m 23.802s, 53 laps
- Daniil Kvyat, Red Bull, 1m 23.975s, 82 laps
- Jenson Button, McLaren, 1m 27.660s, 41 laps
- Fernando Alonso, McLaren, 1m 35.553s, 38 laps
Total distance run – by team (power unit, where different):
- Mercedes, 516 laps – 2,284km
- Sauber (Ferrari), 382 laps – 1,691km
- Toro Rosso (Renault), 353 laps – 1,563km
- Ferrari, 349 laps – 1,545km
- Williams (Mercedes), 278 laps – 1,230km
- Lotus (Mercedes), 190 laps – 841km
- Red Bull (Renault), 166 laps – 735km
- McLaren (Honda), 79 laps – 349km
On January 28th 2015, Williams Martini Racing announced that GP3 champion Alex Lynn will join Susie Wolff as a test driver. Lynn will spend most of his time on the simulator, but is also scheduled to participate in the Barcelona mid-season test in May. The Essex born, 21-year-old adds another english face to the Grove, UK race team. Only he and Susie will wear helmets bearing a Union Jack from the FW37 cockpit.
“As a British team we are always on the lookout for emerging home-grown talent and Alex has caught our eye with his impressive performances in GP3.” Claire Williams said, adding, “He has been chosen on merit,” which implies he’s not bringing money to the team, but talent. That’s a good thing for two reasons. First, Williams is financially sound and not looking for sponsorship help from their drivers. Second, it’s not always the fastest that bring a sponsor, ahem, examples will go nameless.
Not at all a surprise, Lynn is excited at the opportunity, “I am extremely excited to be joining Williams, a team with such incredible history and amazing potential,” Lynn said. In addition to his test driver role, Lynn will compete in the GP2 championship with DAMS racing. And, if Lynn is fast and lucky enough, we’ll see a second British team/driver combination on the F1 grid in 2016. The most experienced active F1 driver, Jenson Button, is alone in that camp, driving for McLaren.
Fun with Cars wishes Alex Lynn the best of luck.
Christmas Day is less than two weeks away, and if you haven’t yet found a gift for the Formula 1 fan in your life, worry not, we’re here to help. Fun with Cars combed Amazon and found 6 must haves.
1. Legos! For anyone with a penchant for building, Denmark does more than make quick Magnussens. Legos sells these super cool F1 Technica sets. Jim has one, I know because I bought it for him.
2. More Legos! Not everyone needs thousands of pieces to get the Lego experience, this kit offers the same feel, but with a simpler build.
3. The Ron Howard film, Rush, covering the 1976 championship battle between Niki Lauda James Hunt. Brilliant!
4. Or, if you prefer a documentary, listen to Michael Fassbender describe F1 as it progresses from its early stages into the 1990s. It’s a fascinating film, I love it.
Actually, Jim and I watched them both together.
5. A mechanic’s Tale, by F1 commentator Steve Matchett offers insight into what it was like on the other side of the pit wall.
6. You know, some folks just want clothes. I found that too, here’s my favorite.
Merry Christmas everyone!
Since we saw Mercedes humble its competitors at the 2014 Formula 1 season opener in Australia, it seemed inevitable that the Drivers World Championship would eventually be contested between the Silver Arrows teammates: Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg. At the United States Grand Prix on November 2nd, the only other driver with a shot, Daniel Riccardo, was mathematically eliminated and proved inevitability correct. With the Abu Dhabi Grand Prix finale fast approaching, it’s down to two drivers and 50 points. Hamilton holds a 17 point advantage, but Rosberg dominated last weekend and won the Brazilian Grand Prix, so he carries momentum. Who will win? Statistics say: Hamilton.
I devised this fun little chart outlining all the variations on results between Hamilton and Rosberg:
Green means Hamilton wins, blue means Rosberg wins. The number within each cell is the margin of victory (Rosberg’s are negative because of the math I used). There are 110 different possible outcomes of the Abu Dhabi GP. In 85 of those outcomes, Hamilton wins, Rosberg in 25. Because of Mercedes supremacy, only four of those outcomes are likely:
1) Hamilton Wins, Rosberg in second
2) Rosberg wins, Hamilton in second
3) Hamilton wins, Rosberg DNF’s
4) Rosberg wins, Hamilton DNF’s.
In three out of four of those cases, Hamilton wins.
Put it another way, if Hamilton finishes second or better, he becomes Drivers World Champion, regardless of how Rosberg finishes.
Almost all F1 fans agree that double points for the last race are silly…stupid…gimmicky—a mistake. But our best argument for reverting back to the 2013 points scoring system is that double points aren’t likely to change the outcome. Here’s a theoretical chart without double points, but all else equal:
In this case, Hamilton would have a slightly stronger statistical chance at the championship, but notice that the four likeliest scenarios I listed before remain the same.
So there you have it, the Fun with Cars nerdy version of championship math. And now for our prediction: Daniel Riccardo hops on his magic Kangaroo and boomerangs back in time several Grands Prix, wins them all, and the 2014 Formula 1 Drivers World Championship!
Both Robin and Jim have a long history with the automotive press, and this latest video from /DRIVE channel goes behind the scenes with Car and Driver Magazine for their major annual track testing event, Lightning Lap. Starting about four minutes in, Jim makes an appearance, talking about the technology he brings to the event, and has done for years. It’s an interesting view into our lives when we’re not talking about Formula One.
Jamey Price share’s his China experience and give’s fascinating insight to the general mode (like the looks on the driver’s faces), the cars, and the atmosphere. He even mentions the fortitude it takes to travel in China with bags full of camera gear. Speaking of cameras, the pictures included are fantastic.
Claire Williams, daughter of Sir Frank, and the Deputy Team Principal of Williams Martini Racing was just awarded the coveted title of: Best Deputy Team Principal of all time, ever! And the reason is simple. Through her leadership, one of the most storied F1 teams in history is as competitive now as it was in the days of Juan Pablo Montoya. What’s more, she led a turn around of the team in short order. Only last year Williams finished a shameful 9th in the contractors championship with only 5 points. Now, with only three races complete they’ve collected 30 points, sit in 6th in the championship, and have momentum on their side to catch 5th place Ferrari.
That is impressive as hell!
Just last week we wrote about intra-team politics that caused the drivers consternation. Boo. But that was quickly handled, issue settled. Then less than a week later both drivers made it to Q3, 3rd and 7th respectively, and then went on to finish 7th and 8th for another fantastic result. Clearly many people deserve credit for this, but it’s undeniable that a fresh face, with fresh ideas has proved revelatory.
And here’s the best bit. I like Williams. Jim likes Williams. Everyone, just about, likes Williams. They’re a plucky never-give-up team that always finds a way to preserver. Ever since BMW left Williams, they struggled as a privateer team with no manufacturer backing. But now, with new rules and an even more complicated power train, they thrive. I love it. And I wanted to take a moment to recognize the brilliant mind behind it.
The Best Deputy Team Principal in the freakin Galaxy, Claire Williams.